Part B Premium 2027: What We Know, What's Projected ($209.50), and the Day It Becomes Official

At a glance: Two kinds of numbers are circulating about your 2027 Part B premium; only one kind is official. Official today: 2026's standard premium, $202.90 a month, and $283 deductible (CMS); the full 2026 IRMAA table below; and Social Security's 3.6% COLA for 2027. Not yet announced: every 2027 premium, deductible and IRMAA figure. The best public estimate is the Medicare Trustees' projected standard premium of $209.50 a month (projected) — up a projected $6.60. At that projected premium, the average retiree's COLA raise nets +$68.40 a month (projected) instead of the headline $75.

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Within weeks, CMS will publish the one number that quietly reprices every Social Security check in America: the 2027 Part B premium. Until that day, forecast pages will print 2027 premiums and brackets as if they were law. They are not. This desk's rule: a figure is official when the agency publishes it; a projection gets called a projection every time it appears.

What is official today: the 2026 numbers

Start with what CMS has actually set. On Friday, November 14, 2025, it released the 2026 figures: a standard Part B premium of $202.90 a month, up $17.90 — nearly 10% — from $185.00 in 2025, and an annual Part B deductible of $283, up $26 from $257. Every 2027 estimate is built as a change from those amounts.

Above an income line, you also pay an income-related monthly adjustment amount — IRMAA — on Part B, and again on Part D. CMS's official 2026 table (income = MAGI: adjusted gross income plus tax-exempt interest) is:

MAGI — single filer	MAGI — joint filers	Part B surcharge	Part B total	Part D surcharge
Up to $109,000	Up to $218,000	$0.00	$202.90	$0.00
$109,001 to $137,000	$218,001 to $274,000	$81.20	$284.10	$14.50
$137,001 to $171,000	$274,001 to $342,000	$202.90	$405.80	$37.50
$171,001 to $205,000	$342,001 to $410,000	$324.60	$527.50	$60.40
$205,001 to $499,999	$410,001 to $749,999	$446.30	$649.20	$83.30
$500,000 and up	$750,000 and up	$487.00	$689.90	$91.00

Married filing separately (having lived with your spouse) uses three lines instead — standard up to $109,000, the $649.20 total to $391,000, $689.90 above (Part D: $0.00, $83.30, $91.00); CMS notes the surcharges affect roughly 8% of Part B enrollees. And note the year inside the table: the 2026 tiers were set by 2024 tax returns — the two-year lookback that decides your 2027 tier below.

The other official 2027 number in hand is SSA's, published Wednesday, October 14, 2026: a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment, the average retired worker's gross benefit estimated at $2,095 rising to $2,170. What SSA pointedly did not publish is your 2027 premium — its release says the amount "will be available via my Social Security Message Center starting in late November." Until CMS speaks, there is no official 2027 premium. Full stop.

The projection: $209.50 (projected), and what kind of number it is

The figure every careful forecast is using comes from the 2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Medicare trust funds, transmitted to Congress on Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Its Part B estimates state it in one sentence: "The estimated monthly premium for 2027 is $209.50." Its appendix (Table V.E2) carries 2027 as an "intermediate estimate": a standard premium of $209.50 (projected) and a Part B deductible of $292 (projected) — a projected $9 above 2026's official $283.

Understand what that number is. The Trustees — three Cabinet secretaries, the Social Security Commissioner and two public trustees, working from the Medicare actuaries' models — publish the report under "intermediate assumptions," their middle path for medical costs and enrollment. The standard premium covers, by law, about 25% of expected per-person Part B costs plus a reserve; the actuaries estimate those costs a year or more ahead, and CMS sets the real premium in the fall with fresher data. A Trustees figure is the government's own best estimate — and it is an estimate.

It is also a moving one. The 2025 report's projection for 2027 was $218.60 (projected); a year later the 2026 report revised the same year down to a projected $209.50 — the estimate moved $9.10 before CMS said a word. Private forecasters mostly run higher than the Trustees, in a projected range of roughly $215 to $219. This desk uses the Trustees' figure as its planning number: it is the program's own actuaries, on the record, in a public document you can open. A planning figure — not a promise.

How close have the Trustees come? The last two years, checked

A projection earns trust from its record — the last two complete cycles, Trustees estimate against the premium CMS actually announced:

Premium year	Trustees projection	CMS official premium	Difference
2025	$185.00 (projected, 2024 report)	$185.00	$0.00 — exact
2026	$206.50 (projected, 2025 report)	$202.90	projection $3.60 high
2027	$209.50 (projected, 2026 report)	not yet announced	—

The deductible ran the same way: projected $257 for 2025, landed $257; projected $288 (2025 report) for 2026, landed $283. Read the pattern honestly: in a calm year the estimate can be exact; in a jump year it overshot by $3.60 a month, about $43 a year. Both argue for the sensitivity rule this desk uses everywhere: for every $1 the official premium lands above the projected $209.50 (projected), subtract $1 a month — $12 a year — from any projected net raise.

How the 2027 IRMAA tiers will be built

Your 2027 surcharges, if you pay any, were decided by history: they key off your 2025 modified adjusted gross income — the return you filed in early 2026. That two-year lookback is why our Medicare IRMAA Brackets 2026 guide can explain the whole machine today: only the numbers change, never the machinery.

The income lines move by formula, not discretion. Under 42 U.S.C. §1395r(i)(5), the lower thresholds adjust each year by the change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers over the 12 months ending in August, rounded to the nearest $1,000. Watch it work in the official record: the first surcharge line stood at $106,000 single / $212,000 joint in 2025 and rose to $109,000 / $218,000 in 2026. Nor have the lines always moved: the Trustees' appendix records that they "were not indexed to inflation in the years 2011 through 2019 but are indexed thereafter" — a decade-long freeze Congress could repeat.

Run that formula on the published price data and you get the figure careful trackers print for 2027: a projected first line of $112,000 single / $224,000 joint (projected). The calculation is real — it reproduces CMS's official 2024, 2025 and 2026 tables to the dollar — but the output is a projection, not a CMS publication, and one input is genuinely unsettled: the Bureau of Labor Statistics published no CPI-U for October 2025, and how CMS treats that missing month shifts some middle-tier lines by about $1,000. The projected first line survives either treatment; even it stays provisional until CMS prints its table.

One set of lines does not move at all, by design. The top tier — $500,000 single / $750,000 joint, added by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 — sits outside the formula: the statute adjusts the $500,000 amounts only "in the case of any calendar year beginning after 2027," and the Trustees say it flatly: "These new thresholds will not be indexed until 2028 and later." (The joint line is $750,000, not $1,000,000: 150% of the single amount, by law.) A frozen ceiling above rising floors is a slow ratchet: each year a few more households land in the top tier without being richer in real terms.

And the surcharge amounts? None exist officially for 2027, and none can until the standard premium exists — they are computed together. The statute prices each tier as a share of the average Part B cost per person aged 65+: the standard premium covers 25%, the five tiers 35%, 50%, 65%, 80% and 85%. CMS applies those shares in the same fall release, which is why the premium and the IRMAA table always arrive together. Exact 2027 tier totals printed anywhere today are private arithmetic presented as an announcement. The release is weeks away — wait for it.

The net-check preview: why this is the number that matters

The premium matters because of where it sits: it comes out of your Social Security check before the deposit is made. SSA's 3.6% COLA raises the gross benefit — for the average retired worker, $2,095 to $2,170, a $75 raise — and then the premium takes its share. At the projected premium, the increase is a projected $6.60: $75.00 minus $6.60 leaves a net raise of +$68.40 a month (projected), or +$820.80 a year (projected), on the average check.

The full net-check treatment — three check sizes, the hold-harmless rule, a COLA-side worksheet — lives in the companion guide, Social Security COLA 2027 Is 3.6% — But Your Real Raise Is Smaller: The Net-Check Math. This article's worksheet is the other half of the envelope: the premium side, ready for announcement day.

Get the free one-page 2027 Premium Watch Worksheet — official 2026 figures beside the projected 2027 figures, blank slots for the announced premium, deductible and your IRMAA line, and a four-line net check you can finish in pen on announcement day. Get the free worksheet (PDF) → or have it sent to your inbox →. All of this desk's worksheets are collected on the Worksheets page.

Locked for 2027 — and still changeable for 2028

Notice what the lookback does to your options: your 2027 tier was fixed by your 2025 return, and nothing you do this fall changes it. The one exception is an appeal: if your income fell because of a life-changing event the law recognizes — work stoppage, a spouse's death, divorce, lost pension income, among others — Social Security can re-price your premium on more recent income, via Form SSA-44. The Medicare IRMAA Brackets 2026 guide covers the tiers; its companion appeal guide walks the SSA-44 itself.

Your 2026 income, though, is still live: it sets your 2028 tiers, and the window closes December 31, 2026. Two levers dominate. A Roth conversion adds MAGI in the year you do it, so a conversion sized in 2026 is a 2028 premium decision as much as a tax decision — Does a Roth Conversion Raise Your Medicare Premiums? works that loop in dollars; Roth Conversion Deadline 2026: Fill the 12% Bracket, Don't Spill It is the year-end playbook. A qualified charitable distribution runs the other way — IRA money sent straight to charity never enters MAGI at all: Qualified Charitable Distribution 2026: The $111,000 Playbook for Giving From Your IRA. Premium season, in other words, is not November. For 2028, it is the rest of 2026.

Announcement day: the five figures to grab, in order

When the release lands — expected in November; the last two fact sheets both arrived on Fridays (November 8, 2024; November 14, 2025), inside a window from late September to mid-November — it will contain far more than the headline number. The five that decide your January, in order:

• 1. The standard Part B premium. Compare it with the projected $209.50 (projected): every dollar of difference moves every net-check estimate by a dollar a month.
• 2. The Part B deductible. The figure to beat is a projected $292 (projected), against 2026's official $283.
• 3. The IRMAA threshold table. Compare the first line with the projected first line of $112,000 single / $224,000 joint (projected) — it decides which side most near-the-line households land on. The top lines should still read $500,000 and $750,000: by law they cannot move before 2028.
• 4. The Part B tier totals and the Part D surcharge table. If you pay IRMAA, these — not the standard premium — are your January numbers.
• 5. The Part A amounts. The hospital deductible and buy-in premiums (paid by the roughly 1% without premium-free Part A) ride along in the same release.

Then your personal number arrives: SSA posts your actual 2027 premium in your my Social Security Message Center from late November, and your COLA notice itemizes the deduction. On announcement day this page is re-published with official figures in place of every projection, and the COLA guide is re-run the same day. The worksheet below has the blank slots waiting.

Frequently asked questions

What will the Medicare Part B premium be in 2027?

It has not been announced; anyone stating it as fact is guessing. The sourced estimate is the Medicare Trustees' projection: $209.50 a month (projected), up a projected $6.60 from 2026's official $202.90. Some private forecasts run higher (roughly $215 to $219, projected). CMS sets the official figure in the fall — expected November 2026 — and this page updates that day.

When will CMS announce the 2027 Part B premium?

CMS does not pre-announce the date. Recent pattern: November 8, 2024 for the 2025 figures, November 14, 2025 for the 2026 figures — both Fridays in November, inside a window from late September to mid-November. Expect November 2026.

Which tax year decides my 2027 IRMAA?

Your 2025 return — your 2025 modified adjusted gross income (AGI plus tax-exempt interest). That is the two-year lookback; your 2026 income will set your 2028 premiums the same way. Your 2027 tier is therefore already fixed, unless a recognized life-changing event supports an SSA-44 appeal — see the Medicare IRMAA Brackets 2026 guide.

How much of my 3.6% COLA raise will the Part B increase take?

For the average retired worker, SSA's gross raise is $75 a month. At the Trustees' projected premium — a projected increase of $6.60 — the net raise is +$68.40 a month (projected): the premium takes about 9% of the raise, and every extra dollar on the official premium takes another dollar off the net. Full math for three check sizes: Social Security COLA 2027 Is 3.6% — But Your Real Raise Is Smaller: The Net-Check Math.

Are the projected 2027 IRMAA brackets on other websites official?

No. No 2027 IRMAA table exists until CMS publishes it with the premium. What circulates is the statute's indexing formula applied early: a projected first line of $112,000 single / $224,000 joint (projected) — a careful calculation, not an announcement, with some middle-tier lines uncertain by about $1,000 (the missing October 2025 CPI-U report). The top lines are the only certainty: $500,000 and $750,000, fixed by law until 2028.

My income dropped a lot after 2025. Am I stuck paying a 2027 surcharge?

Not necessarily. If the drop came from a life-changing event SSA recognizes — stopping or reducing work, a spouse's death, marriage or divorce, lost pension income — ask SSA, with Form SSA-44 and documentation, to re-determine your premium on more recent income. Without a qualifying event, the 2025 return governs for all of 2027.

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Be ready the day it lands: the free 2027 Premium Watch Worksheet puts official 2026 figures beside the projected 2027 figures on one printable page, with blank lines for announcement day and a four-line net-check calculation. Get the free worksheet (PDF) → or have it emailed to you →.

Sources & official figures

• Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services — 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles, fact sheet, November 14, 2025 (standard premium $202.90; deductible $283; full 2026 Part B + Part D IRMAA tables incl. MFS lines; surcharges "affect roughly 8% of people with Medicare Part B"): https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2026-medicare-parts-b-premiums-deductibles
• Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services — 2025 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles, fact sheet, November 8, 2024 (standard premium $185.00; deductible $257; first IRMAA line $106,000 single / $212,000 joint): https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2025-medicare-parts-b-premiums-and-deductibles
• Boards of Trustees — 2026 Annual Report of the Medicare Boards of Trustees, transmitted June 9, 2026 (§III.C2: "The estimated monthly premium for 2027 is $209.50" — projected; App. E, Table V.E2: 2027 premium $209.50, deductible $292 — projected; Appendix E: thresholds "were not indexed to inflation in the years 2011 through 2019 but are indexed thereafter," tiers cover 35/50/65/80/85% of program cost vs 25% standard, top thresholds "will not be indexed until 2028 and later"): https://www.cms.gov/OACT/TR/2026
• Social Security Administration — Social Security Announces 3.6 Percent Benefit Increase for 2027, press release, October 14, 2026 (3.6% COLA; 2027 premium amount via my Social Security Message Center from late November): https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/press/releases/2026-10-14.html
• Social Security Administration — 2027 COLA Fact Sheet, October 14, 2026 (estimated average benefits payable January 2027: retired workers $2,095 → $2,170; aged couple $3,238 → $3,355, both receiving benefits)
• 42 U.S.C. §1395r(i)(5) — the IRMAA indexing formula (CPI-U, 12 months ending August, rounded to the nearest $1,000); subsection (i)(5)(C): the $500,000 amounts are not adjusted for any year beginning before 2028

Last updated: October 25, 2026 — figures checked against CMS, SSA and Trustees sources on October 25, 2026. The 2027 premium and IRMAA tiers were unannounced at this update; every dependent figure is marked (projected) and will be refreshed on announcement day.

Disclaimer: The Retirement Desk publishes education, not financial, tax, or legal advice. Every 2027 figure here is a projection — the Trustees' estimate or a statutory-formula calculation — unless a sentence says CMS or SSA has published it; official figures may differ, and individual premiums vary with IRMAA. Your SSA notice is the official statement of your own amount.

Filed under: Medicare — The Retirement Desk, the situation-first retirement money desk for Americans 60–75.